By Senior Editor, China Africa News
Addis Ababa– In 2024, China’s economy expanded to 134.9 trillion Yuan (roughly US$18.95 trillion), with growth of approximately 5 percent year-on-year. More striking still is the claim that China contributes about 30 percent of global economic growth, an indication of the scale and centrality of its role in the world economy.
For Africa, especially nations such as Ethiopia, this is far from a distant statistic. It offers a working template of what sustained transformation might look like and what the pitfalls could be.
The Ethiopian scholar, Dr Balew Demissie (senior consultant at the Policy Studies Institute of Ethiopia) and Associate Professor at Addis Ababa University, sees in China’s trajectory three interconnected dynamics: scaling, upgrading, and opening up.
He points to China’s investment in research and development 2.68 % of GDP in 2024 as emblematic of its pivot from volume-to-value. The old model of low‐cost manufacturing is giving way to electric vehicles, robotics, 5G systems and renewable-energy equipment.
This matters because for many African countries, reliance on raw-materials, low‐value manufacturing and external shocks has proven a brittle foundation. Demissie argues that what Africa needs is not a blind imitation of China, but an adaptation of its lessons particularly long-term strategic vision, institutional consistency and aligned execution.
“Africa should not simply copy China but adapt the lessons from its achievements,” he has been quoted saying.
One of the key lessons is the value of long-term planning. China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) has been central to the narrative of where the country is heading in terms of innovation, sustainability, urbanization and major projects Demissie singles it out as offering “valuable lessons for African nations in pursuing structural transformation and resilience.”
For countries like Ethiopia, still navigating the twin demands of rapid urbanization and industrialization, this kind of framework offers a mode of thinking beyond the next election cycle or budget line.
The second lesson is industrial upgrading. China’s shift from being primarily a manufacturing hub to positioning itself in higher‐tech, higher‐value sectors gives it a buffer against global commodity cycles and low‐cost competition.
For Africa, as Demissie points out, the question is how to ensure that newly built manufacturing infrastructure, special economic zones or industrial parks do not simply replicate older models of labour‐intensive assembly but rather move toward environments of higher skill, higher value and technological linkages. This means investment not just in factories, but in systems education, up-skilling, R&D and logistics.
Read also: China–Ethiopia Tech Ties Are Powering a Digital Transformation
Third, the green transition offers a potent path for inclusive development. China has been described by Demissie as “on the right track” to peak carbon emissions by about 2030 and is now among the world’s leading investors in renewable energy.
For many African nations endowed with renewable resources sun, wind, hydro the possibility of leap‐frogging older energy systems and manufacturing clean-energy equipment is tangible. But again, the emphasis must be on value capture not just raw energy exports, but local content, manufacturing, and scaling that link into the global value chain.
Opening up the fourth dimension matters too. Demissie observes that China’s efforts to improve access for foreign investors, and to strengthen protections such as intellectual property and fair competition, reflect the idea that openness alone is not enough; institutional quality and fairness matter. For African states, the tension between attracting foreign capital and retaining policy sovereignty, local benefit and fair value remains acute.
Still, it would be naive to treat China’s model as a universal template without caveats. Even for China, sustaining 5 % growth in a very large economy is challenging; institutional capture, environmental externalities, demographic shifts and global geopolitical tensions all loom. For African states, institutional capacity, governance quality, human-capital depth and infrastructural deficits are significant constraints.
Dr Demissie himself notes that many African countries “lack consistent planning and institutional efficiency.” Recognising this acts as a sobering counter‐point to uncritical adoption of another country’s model.
In the Ethiopia-China partnership, the signs are clear: infrastructure projects, manufacturing zones, investment flows, educational and cultural exchange. But the question for Ethiopia and its peers is how to utilize these engagements so that they generate domestic capability, rather than simply external participation. It is one thing to build a railway, another to build the skills, logistics, ancillary industries and institutional platforms around it.
In the end, the most valuable insight may lie in the triad of scalable growth, structural upgrading and smart openness. China is not perfect. It does not claim perfection. But the fact that it continues to contribute such a large portion of global growth despite major global headwinds speaks to the direction of travel. For African nations, the aim should not be to replicate, but to translate: to take the principles, adapt them to local context, and embed them in strategy and institutions.
Dr Balew Demissie reminds us that sustained national progress is less about a single “big breakout” and far more about consistency: “consistent vision, adaptive strategy and effective implementation.” For Ethiopia, and for Africa, that may be the most potent blueprint of all.
